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Calculator

Weighted Pipeline Value Calculator

Add up the open deal value sitting at each stage of your pipeline, give each stage a win probability, and this calculator gives you the weighted total — a more sober number than the raw pipeline figure. It also shows the unweighted total and the blended probability across the whole pipeline. Everything is worked out in your browser and nothing is sent anywhere.

Enter a deal value for at least one stage to see a result.

How this works

For each stage, the calculator multiplies the total open deal value by that stage's win probability, then adds the five results together. A stage holding £60,000 at 50% contributes £30,000 to the weighted figure. Stages you leave blank or set to zero are skipped entirely.

The blended probability at the bottom is simply the weighted total divided by the unweighted total. It tells you, in one number, how confident your pipeline as a whole is. A blended figure in the low teens usually means your pipeline is mostly early-stage — plenty of names, not much about to close.

The probabilities are yours to set. The honest way to do it is to look back at your own closed deals and ask what share of everything that reached "proposal sent" was eventually won. If you have never measured it, the stage percentages in your CRM are a guess that somebody made once, and inheriting them uncritically is how forecasts drift. Defining the stages clearly has to come before putting numbers on them.

A worked example

A small team has the following open pipeline: £120,000 qualified at 10%, £90,000 in discovery at 25%, £60,000 at proposal at 50%, £40,000 in negotiation at 75%, and £25,000 at verbal commitment at 90%.

Stage by stage: £120,000 × 10% = £12,000. £90,000 × 25% = £22,500. £60,000 × 50% = £30,000. £40,000 × 75% = £30,000. £25,000 × 90% = £22,500.

Weighted total: £12,000 + £22,500 + £30,000 + £30,000 + £22,500 = £117,000.

Unweighted total: £120,000 + £90,000 + £60,000 + £40,000 + £25,000 = £335,000.

Blended probability: £117,000 ÷ £335,000 = 34.9%.

So a team that would happily tell the board it has "£335,000 in the pipeline" is really forecasting £117,000. Both numbers are true. Only one of them is a forecast.

What this doesn't account for

The biggest limitation is timing. A weighted pipeline tells you how much value is likely to close eventually — it says nothing about when. A £100,000 deal at 90% that will not sign until next year is worth £90,000 to the weighted total and nothing at all to this quarter. If you need a period forecast, filter to deals with a close date inside that period before you start.

It also assumes each stage's probability is a fair average across the deals sitting in it, which is rarely true when one deal dominates. Weighting works reasonably well over many small deals and badly over a handful of large ones — with four deals in the pipeline, the weighted number describes an outcome that cannot actually happen, because each deal will either close in full or not at all.

Stage is a weak proxy for probability in any case. Deals do not become more likely simply because someone dragged a card across a board, and a deal that has sat at "proposal sent" for five months is not a 50% deal. Weighted pipeline is a useful sanity check against optimism, not a substitute for looking at the deals. For the alternatives and where each one breaks down, see sales forecasting methods compared.

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